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Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether The candidate who curiously outperformed the bellwether counties? Trump For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Will Ohio's Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable - The Epoch Times It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! I believe in a time cycle. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . I dont watch TV. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Donald Trump Won Record 16 Bellwether Counties - Swarajyamag It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Here's why. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Weve never done that before.. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). List of election bellwether counties in the United States She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. 0:00 0:00. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. We dont want it, she said. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Im not happy with the way things are now. But thats not the picture I look at. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Their fear is real, mine is. Its crazy. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. I find that hard to believe. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. This claim is basically absurd. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. I got a life. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY I think its very political right now, honestly. I am under that impression. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. I think we needed somebody like him.. The morale of the people up there is bad. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Pre-performance Lobby events. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. I hope.. He isnt so sure about Biden. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. The Epoch Times - YouTube My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Its gone, Jacobs said. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. bellwether counties epoch times This is a high farming community.. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. People need to get a job, get out and work. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Opinion | The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How - The New York Times (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Bellwether - Wikipedia As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Your email address will not be published. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Bellwether counties went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. I just want Trump in. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. It will cycle through. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. And we just want that to continue. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. bellwether counties epoch times - crownxmas.com Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole."